이미지 확대보기<미국 뉴욕증시 주간 주요 지표 및 연설 일정>
2022년 3월9일= 챌린저 감원보고서, 실업보험청구자 수, 마이클 바 연준 금융감독 부의장 연설-암호화폐 주제, 울타뷰티, 갭, 도큐사인 실적발표 3월10일= 2월 고용보고서, 2024 회계연도 예산안, 재닛 옐런 재무장관 하원 청문회
미국 노동부 고용보고서 (2월3일 발표분)
Employment Situation Summary
THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION --
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 517,000 in January, and the unemployment rate
changed little at 3.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job
growth was widespread, led by gains in leisure and hospitality, professional and
business services, and health care. Employment also increased in government, partially
reflecting the return of workers from a strike.
This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey
measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics. The
establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry. For
more information about the concepts and statistical methodology used in these two surveys,
see the Technical Note.
_______________________________________________________________________________________
| |
| Changes to The Employment Situation Data |
| |
| Establishment survey data have been revised as a result of the annual benchmarking |
| process, the NAICS 2022 conversion, and the updating of seasonal adjustment factors. |
| Also, household survey data for January 2023 reflect updated population estimates. |
| See the notes at the end of this news release for more information. |
|_______________________________________________________________________________________|
Household Survey Data
Both the unemployment rate, at 3.4 percent, and the number of unemployed persons, at 5.7
million, changed little in January. The unemployment rate has shown little net movement
since early 2022. (See table A-1. See the note at the end of this news release and tables
B and C for more information about annual population adjustments to the household survey
estimates.)
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (3.2 percent), adult
women (3.1 percent), teenagers (10.3 percent), Whites (3.1 percent), Blacks (5.4 percent),
Asians (2.8 percent), and Hispanics (4.5 percent) showed little change in January. (See
tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)
The number of persons jobless less than 5 weeks decreased to 1.9 million in January. The
number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was essentially
unchanged at 1.1 million. The long-term unemployed accounted for 19.4 percent of the total
unemployed in January. (See table A-12.)
In January, both the labor force participation rate, at 62.4 percent, and the employment-
population ratio, at 60.2 percent, were unchanged after removing the effects of the annual
adjustments to the population controls. These measures have shown little net change since
early 2022 and remain below their pre-pandemic February 2020 levels (63.3 percent and 61.1
percent, respectively). (See table A-1. For additional information about the effects of
the population adjustments, see table C.)
The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.1 million, was little
changed in January. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were
working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-
time jobs. (See table A-8.)
The number of persons not in the labor force who currently want a job was 5.3 million in
January, little changed from the prior month. These individuals were not counted as
unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding
the survey or were unavailable to take a job. (See table A-1.)
Among those not in the labor force who wanted a job, the number of persons marginally
attached to the labor force, at 1.4 million, changed little in January. These individuals
wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12
months but had not looked for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. The number of
discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached who believed that no jobs were
available for them, was also little changed over the month at 342,000. (See Summary
table A.)
Establishment Survey Data
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 517,000 in January, compared with an average
monthly gain of 401,000 in 2022. Job growth was widespread in January, led by gains in
leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and health care. Employment
also increased in government, partially reflecting the return of workers from a strike.
(See table B-1. See the note at the end of this new release and table A for more
information about the annual benchmark process.)
Leisure and hospitality added 128,000 jobs in January compared with an average of 89,000
jobs per month in 2022. Over the month, food services and drinking places added 99,000
jobs, while employment continued to trend up in accommodation (+15,000). Employment in
leisure and hospitality remains below its pre-pandemic February 2020 level by 495,000,
or 2.9 percent.
In January, employment in professional and business services rose by 82,000, led by gains
in professional, scientific, and technical services (+41,000). Job growth in professional
and business services averaged 63,000 per month in 2022.
Government employment increased by 74,000 in January. Employment in state government
education increased by 35,000, reflecting the return of university workers after a
strike.
Health care added 58,000 jobs in January. Job growth occurred in ambulatory health care
services (+30,000), nursing and residential care facilities (+17,000), and hospitals
(+11,000). In 2022, health care added an average of 47,000 jobs per month.
Employment in retail trade rose by 30,000 in January, following little net growth in
2022 (an average of +7,000 per month). In January, job gains in general merchandise
retailers (+16,000) and in furniture, home furnishings, electronics, and appliance
retailers (+7,000) were partially offset by a decline in health and personal care
retailers (-6,000).
Construction added 25,000 jobs in January, reflecting an employment gain in specialty
trade contractors (+22,000). Employment in the construction industry grew by an average
of 22,000 per month in 2022.
In January, transportation and warehousing added 23,000 jobs, the same as the industry's
average monthly gain in 2022. Over the month, employment in support activities for
transportation increased by 7,000.
Employment in social assistance increased by 21,000 in January, little different from
the 2022 average gain of 19,000 per month.
Manufacturing employment continued to trend up in January (+19,000). In 2022,
manufacturing added an average of 33,000 jobs per month.
Employment showed little change over the month in other major industries, including
mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; wholesale trade; information;
financial activities; and other services.
In January, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose
by 10 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $33.03. Over the past 12 months, average hourly
earnings have increased by 4.4 percent. In January, average hourly earnings of private-
sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 7 cents, or 0.2 percent, to
$28.26. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)
The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 0.3 hour to
34.7 hours in January. In manufacturing, the average workweek increased by 0.4 hour to
40.5 hours, and overtime increased by 0.1 hour to 3.1 hours. The average workweek for
production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 0.2
hour to 34.1 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for November was revised up by 34,000,
from +256,000 to +290,000, and the change for December was revised up by 37,000, from
+223,000 to +260,000. With these revisions, employment gains in November and December
combined were 71,000 higher than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from
additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last
published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors. The annual
benchmark process also contributed to the November and December revisions.)
_____________
The Employment Situation for February is scheduled to be released on
Friday, March 10, 2023, at 8:30 a.m. (ET).
Revisions to Establishment Survey Data
In accordance with annual practice, the establishment survey data released today have
been benchmarked to reflect comprehensive counts of payroll jobs for March 2022. These
counts are derived principally from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW),
which counts jobs covered by the Unemployment Insurance (UI) tax system. In addition,
the basis for industry classification in the establishment survey has been revised
from the 2017 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) to NAICS 2022.
Approximately 10 percent of employment was reclassified into different industries as
a result of the NAICS revision. Implementation of NAICS 2022 resulted in major
revisions reflecting content and coding changes in the retail trade and information
sectors, as well as minor revisions within the mining and logging, manufacturing,
wholesale trade, financial activities, and other services sectors. Many industry
titles and descriptions were also updated to better reflect official NAICS titles.
Revisions due to both the NAICS 2022 conversion and the benchmark process affected
more historical data than typical in the annual benchmark process. The NAICS
revisions are reflected for the entire history of affected industries for both
seasonally and not seasonally adjusted data. Details of the updated titles and new,
discontinued, and collapsed industries (and resulting changes to tables B-1 through
B-9) are available at www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesnewseries.htm.
The total nonfarm employment level for March 2022 was revised upward by 568,000
(+506,000 on a not seasonally adjusted basis, or +0.3 percent). The average not
seasonally adjusted benchmark revision (in absolute terms) over the past 10 years is
0.1 percent.
The over-the-year change in total nonfarm employment for March 2022 was revised from
+6,425,000 to +7,096,000 (seasonally adjusted). Table A presents revised total
nonfarm employment data on a seasonally adjusted basis from January to December 2022.
All revised historical establishment survey data are available on the BLS website at
www.bls.gov/ces/data/home.htm. In addition, an article that discusses the benchmark
and post-benchmark revisions and other technical issues is available at
www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbmart.htm.
10일 아침에 끝난 뉴욕증시는 미국의 고용보고서 공포 속에 소폭 오름세로 출발했으나 시간이 지나면서 하락 반전한 후 낙폭을 키우고 있다. 미국 뉴욕증권거래소(NYSE)에서 다우존스30산업평균지수와 스탠더드앤드푸어스(S&P)500지수 그리고 나스닥지수는 이 시각 큰 폭의 하락세를 보였다. SVB 은행파산과 실버게이트 청산 소식으로 비트코인 이더리움 리플 등 암호 가상화폐는 폭락 분위기가 이어지고 있다.
미국 노동부는 신규 실업수당 청구 건수가 전주보다 2만1000건 증가한 21만1000건으로 집계됐다고 밝혔다. 실업수당 청구 건수는 8주 만에 처음으로 20만 건을 넘어 작년 크리스마스 이후 10주 만에 최고치를 기록했다. 지난주 청구 건수는 그러나 역사적으로 여전히 낮은 수준이다. 제롬 파월 미국 연방준비제도(Fed·연준) 의장은 최근 의회 청문회에서 "노동 시장은 여전히 극도로 타이트하다"면서 3월 빅스텝(한 번에 0.5%포인트 금리인상) 가능성을 포함해 종전 예상보다 금리를 더 올릴 수 있음을 시사한 바 있다. 통상 미국에서는 30만 명 수준의 실업수당 청구 건수를 평균 수준으로 보고있다.
연준의 금리인상 결정에 중요한 미국의 2월 고용상황 보고서는 곧 공개된다. 뉴욕증시에서는 자리가 20만 개 이상 증가했을 것으로 예상한다. 이는 지난달 기록한 51만7000명보다 크게 줄어든 것이지만 그래도 여전히 높다. 고용보고서상 신규 일자리가 예상치를 웃돌 경우 3월 연준의 더 큰 폭의 금리인상 우려는 커질 전망이다. 미국의 실업률은 .4% 수준이다.1969년 이후 54년 만의 최저 수준에서 머물고 있다.
제롬 파월 연준 의장은 이번 주 의회 연설에서 "지표가 예상보다 강해 최종금리 수준이 이전보다 높아질 가능성이 크다"고 말했다. 또한 "전체적인 지표상 더 빠른 긴축이 필요하다면 금리인상 속도를 높일 준비가 돼 있다"고 말했다. 뉴욕증시 관심은 온통 고용지표로 돌아섰다. 국채금리는 소강 보합 상태이다,
뉴욕증시 상장업체인 크레디트 스위스의 주가는 회사가 미국 증권 당국의 막판 질의로 인해 이날 발표할 예정이었던 2022년 연말 결산보고서 발표를 연기하기로 했다는 소식에 하락했다. 실버게이트 캐피털은 가상화폐 은행인 자회사 실버게이트 은행의 영업을 중단하고 청산하기로 했다. 유럽증시는 일제히 하락했다. 독일 DAX지수는 약보합권이다. 영국 FTSE지수와 프랑스 CAC지수는 떨어졌다. 국제유가는 소폭 올랐다.
뉴욕증시는 제롬 파월 연준 의장의 의회 증언과 민간 고용지표를 소화하며 혼조세를 보였다.
미국 노동부의 구인·이직보고서(Jolts)에서 1월 채용공고는 1080만 건으로 전월 수정치인 1120만 건에서 감소했다. 채용공고는 지난해 3월 역대 최대인 1200만 건에서 줄었지만 팬데믹 직전인 2020년 2월의 700만 건 수준을 크게 웃돌고 있다. 특히 현재 실업자 570만 명의 두 배 수준이다.
김대호 글로벌이코노믹 연구소장 tiger8280@g-enews.com
